Ask the Readers: Are We Making a Comeback?

to me the recession will NOT be over until we get back to a reasonable level of unempoyment (5-6 ish %)and the return on investment/bonds reachess historicql levels of the last 25+ years.

There are some things in the economy that seem out of whack. It doesn't seem like it is over, but if it is I will happily accept that.

The buzz on Wall Street is that things are getting worse at a much slower pace. The rate at which we are shedding jobs has slowed. The pace at which housing prices have plummeted has slowed. They see this as indications that the economy is nearing or has basically reached a bottom and the expectation is that things will slowly but steadily get better from here.

For me, when we see the unemployment rate begin to actually decrease I'd say the recession is over. Yes, the unemployment rate is usually a lagging indicator but it is also a definitive one.

By that standard the recession isn't over.

I think we're making a comeback, but I think it's not because the economy is getting better, but instead because people are getting smarter. More bargian-hunting, more budgeting, more getting out of debt. I think this is the kind of comeback that will last a long time if we keep it up.

Given the fact that no one is hiring and the unemployment rate is at a very high level, I think we will be slow getting out of this one.

My husband's company laid off 60 more people yesterday. Out of it? Nope. Our city has forecasted our housing values will not increase for at least 5 years. All that "feel good" talk is worthless.

I'd like to think this recession is ending. My husband's 401(k) is doing much better, but unemployment is still sky-high, so who knows?

We have a long way to go, but if we keep making progress, I think that by 2012, things might be slightly more "normal."

I'm inclined to agree with what my Macroeconomics professor said earlier this month -- we're in the lowest point we'll be and the business cycle's going to start going back up. Now, how long that takes has yet to be seen... But I don't see it getting much worse from this point on, so everything should be a positive step, albeit small ones.

I'm also inclined to agree that measuring unemployment is rather useless... It really has little to do with the state of the economy itself. It'll probably go up as the economy begins to recover anyhow. People seem to like to cite statistics they don't fully understand, and this recession has made a bunch feel like economists themselves. (I have yet to decide if I want to double-major in Economics, it's an interest of mine.)

I believe that many of the jobs lost are not going to return. The jobs where folks assemble things on an assembly line all day for a decent wage (compared globally) are history. Essentially, many of the jobs that involve "doing" are going away.

The US is going to have to retrain people to use their brains a little more and that means investing in education...

...gulp.

I don't think the recession will truly be over until unemployment starts coming down. The stock market may have rebounded, but that only helps the people who have enough money to invest. The millions of people out of work don't care if the S&P 500 goes up. There are promising signs, but we certainly can't breathe a collective sigh of relief yet.

I do think we are seeing some encouraging turnarounds. But I also think it will be a long recovery process, not a quick fix. I also think that we may never get back to what we considered "normal" before this recession. We may very well have to adjust to a new "normal". I hope that new normal includes some big changes in things like regulation of the financial industry and health care delivery. These are big issues and in themselves won't be quick fixes either. It may take some failed attempts and some trial and error, which may be painful. But we can do it. We are a resilient, resourceful nation and we can do this.

The banks may be back to their evil ways (on our $) - but people around me are very cranky about $ & no one has any & at hubby's job mgmt. is taking advantage of the bad job mkt to squeeze its employees to the point of being illegal (by not paying for all hrs. really worked)- We have no choice, however, due to lack of other jobs - I have always pinched pennies - so a lot of this is normal for me - Almost...

My husband was laid off earlier this year (company was bought and closed), graduated with his MBA this summer, took a paycut/title cut in order to have a job while many of his coworkers are still looking (and this is in Biotech where people are educated, specialized and have (in the past) been needed). he is not using his MBA but at least he has a job.

The month after he took the new job, I was laid off from a finance position (executive level) but negotiated part time through the end of the year.

Until people start working again this recession will not be over. When ALL industries are being hit across the board, I don't see any positive signs. Companies are still quietly reducing staff in finance and biotech as well as other areas.

Defnintely heading into a rough patch. Our economy is unstable as we are still consuming far more than we are producing.

How on earth can it ever get better when our jobs are getting outsourced? I think our standard of living will always be lower as long as we are in a service-based economy.

I think we are in for a long rough go before we recover. We didn't build the excess in the market overnight and we won't wash it out overnight or even over the last year. We may not get as bad as the Great Depression but we will have something to talk to our grandkids about. I wrote two blog posts on it over the last 6 weeks. I think both are still relevant.

Stock Market Prediction 2009

Updated Stock Market Prediction

While the stock market doesn't always reflect the economy, the factors I use surely do.

I hope we're finally recovering! My guess was 2010, but now works, too....

IMO it is still too early to say that there is much staying power in this current "comeback". There are simply too many negatives still out there that would give me pause. Rising unemployment, the decreased availability of consumer credit, and the rising consumer credit card default rates are all things that would prevent any kind of short term comeback.

These are the indicators for a recession.
1) 6 month drop in the GNP
2) decrease of real personal income
3) drop in employment rate
4) lower industrial production
5) lower wholesale and retail sales

When these areas improve or at least stabilize, then we're turning around. Until then, we're not.

I think technically that the recession is ending. Once GDP goes positive thats an official end to the recession. It will take a while for jobs to recover and for peoples confidence to rebound but I think we're starting to turn around.

The numbers used to identify the presence and end of a recession may tell us that "it's over". But my experience tells me this recession is far from over. I see some hopeful signs -- at work, they've actually found some money for training (always one of the first cutbacks when times are bad), and housing prices have rebounded some.

But I also notice that, when I call a handyman for a home project, even the best of them are available in a couple of days -- they're not busy. We keep hearing about the next wave of foreclosures -- not speculators this time but "normal" people who are in houses they can no longer afford now that their hours or jobs were cut back or their ARMs adjusted. And the government has gamed the numbers on employment so long that they're meaningless in terms of who actually is employed gainfully and who simply has accepted underemployment or given up totally.

On top of that, we can't go back to where we were. It's simply unsustainable. The money sources for the consumers who propped up this economy for years are gone -- equity investments, deferred compensation, home equity, all gone. We've farmed out so much of our manufacturing capability that it would take big changes to shift that momentum. And we've spent years -- maybe decades -- playing accounting games by taking the funding of wars off the books and by shaving infrastructure costs to the point where expensive repairs are needed, not just catching up on maintenance.

No, this isn't over. And when it is, it won't look like it did.

Rich folks are doing great. Look at all that government money they got.

Poor folks are doing sh--. They didn't get anything, and are getting poorer.

This "recovery" is just another bubble - a bubble that Wall Street's now re-inflating for their own benefit. It'll pop again, because the poor people will drag down the economy with their unending unemployment, lack of healthcare, defaulting on debts, etc.

BTW - did you all know that 75% of new defaults are people walking away from the mortgage? They have great, above average credit, high incomes, and simply make a strategic fiscal decision to get foreclosed.

I agree with what @sd wrote.

We can only hope we'll bite the bullet and change our economy. More likely, we'll take the easy way out, and make more bubbles.

We also need to re-tax the rich and create some baseline social welfare to prevent homelessness.

The question about the economy in the US (or in any country for that matter), should be what is it based upon? In the US, the case is CREDIT. Here the average person owes about 9 000 $, that is nine thousand!!!! How are people supposed to improve, when they are DEBT SLAVES? Recession for the US means: We cannot pay you anything anymore, you have to WAIT untill we can come up with a better financial plan for the whole society and pay you back. Meanwhile, we are taking a recess from shopping, payments, witholding lifes, whatever it takes to get back on the road... And in this case, the whole society is collapsing withing itself... The goverment is BUYING more time, but because of those actions they are taking, prices of everything will eventually go up, because the currency is worth less and less for everyone in the global environment where the sensation is the US won´t pay on time... Just look at the numbers of the foreign debt... If they are not close to CERO, then , you will always have recession and economic problems...